Opinion: Ukraine And Russia On The Verge Of War
Hybrid warfare is greying the lines between rivalry and conflict, raising the risk of miscalculation
If a Russian invasion of Ukraine occurs it will come as a hybrid attack, a multi-dimensional assault by land, air, sea, and cyberspace.
Its aim, to gain control of the territory between the Russian border and the Crimean Peninsula – creating territorial continuity – and conveying a strong message to the West that Russia is not to be messed with.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is fed up, impatient and he realizes that now is his time.
NATO continues to expand, adding to its ranks 14 new countries since the end of the Cold War in 1991, bringing its membership to 30 nations. Putin is concerned that Ukraine will be the 31st and he intends to signal to NATO that this will not be tolerated.
Ukraine is the perfect “platform” for Russia to press its demands that NATO cease expanding, and refrain from military activity in Moscow’s sphere of influence. According to the Russians, Ukraine has not respected the Minsk Protocol, signed in 2014 to curb violence in the east of the country, providing the Kremlin with an excellent excuse.
More than that, the presence of a Russian-speaking majority in the Donbas region gives Putin a community that he can offer to “defend” from the pro-Western moves of Ukraine – well placing him to unite the two countries that are, in his view, one.
As the drums of war beat, it is interesting to examine the preparations the Russian military is making ahead of their upcoming campaign.
On the one hand the Russian military’s stance is a classic preparation for an invasion; with the preplacement of 150,000 soldiers on the border, concentrating combat systems, tanks, artillery, air defenses, planes, and helicopters.
On the other hand, Russia’s military machine is utilizing unconventional moves, as part of a comprehensive doctrine known as ‘hybrid warfare.’ On top of the threat of ‘hard power’ military strength, Russia is piling ‘soft power’ leverage – aiming to achieve its aims without the use of kinetic, real-world weapons.
Military intelligence operatives inserted into Ukraine are recruiting pro-Kremlin actors from within the…
