The Gunpowder of the Twenty-First Century

Gunpowder was invented in the ninth century in China. It was mostly used to make explosive arrows and lances until it made its first appearance in Europe in 1267, following the Mongol invasion. Over 300 years after the initial invention, it enabled the creation of weapons that would transform warfare and change the world forever. In 1453 these weapons brought down the world’s longest-existing empire as the Ottomans overcame the walls of Constantinople using the Basillica gun. Fast forward to 2017 in western Ukraine and the site of one of the biggest cyber-attacks known to date – NotPetya. Originating in the Russian Federation, this piece of malware managed to infect, encrypt, and subsequently wipe thousands of devices all over the world. Events like NotPetya contribute to bigger trends. This article identifies these trends and relates them to the world of international relations. In this inspection, it is important to take into account the unique features of the cyber world as it relies very little on the physical boundaries that the field of international relations is so familiar with, making their interplay all the more interesting.

Trend 1: Increasing Global ‘Attack Surface’

Attack Surface is a term cyber professionals use to define the points of contact, which can be used to perform a malicious activity. It is used when describing a system or an entire IT infrastructure of an organisation or a state. Throughout the last three decades, we have seen a dramatic increase in the ‘global attack surface’. The invention of the internet together with the advancement of computers opened up an entire new world – the cyber world. Before, one state could physically send an agent to another state to gather intelligence, or an army to attempt to dramatically shift the balance of power. Now, states can hack to gather intelligence, or disrupt the national electrical grids and systems of their enemies. Before, a criminal could pickpocket you on a bus or a train. Now, they can encrypt your computer and demand a ransom.

Historically, a sudden increase in global attack surface led to a series of dramatic developments which usually also increased the rate of…