Tag Archive for: Invasion

Ukraine dismantles disinformation botnet; UK warns of Russian invasion risk.

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The Minsk Accords, under negotiation since shortly after Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea, continue to serve as the centerpiece of Russian diplomacy with respect to its claims against Ukraine. The AP has a useful review of their history and implications. In general, the Accords give support to Russian ambitions for nominally separatist Ukrainian provinces to be treated as autonomous regions, their ultimate fate to be determined by plebiscite. Negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and NATO have continued, slowly, and the Telegraph sees the slow-rolling as entirely to Russia’s advantage, with its opponents likely to concede incremental gains over the course of protracted diplomatic engagement. And amid concerns about a Russian threat to its electrical supply system, Ukraine has continued to prepare its separation from the Russian power grid. Such separation would be a contingency to be exercised upon invasion.

Ukraine’s SBU takes down Lviv bot-farms.

The SBU announced its liquidation of two bot farms in the Ukrainian city of Lviv, which the SBU says were operating under Russian direction. Three arrests were made. Two of the suspects are accused of lending their apartments to bot-farming; the third maintained the equipment and software. The two farms controlled some 18,000 bots, and were largely engaged in disruptive influence operations, spreading rumors of bombings and the placement of “mines” in critical infrastructure. The Record describes the bot-farm’s goal as “spreading panic.” The bomb threats may be connected to a wave of such threats Euromaidan reported near the end of January. The SBU at that time characterized the campaign as a preparatory operation in a Russian hybrid war.

Moscú habla español.

Foreign Policy cites a study by Omelas that found Russian-run Spanish language outlets outperforming their American counterparts in pushing a narrative on the crisis in Ukraine. The Russian media outpace US services by three-to-one as measured by audience engagement in the Spanish-speaking Western Hemisphere.

The UK issues a warning.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been unusually direct at mid-week about the risks and consequences of any further Russian invasion of Ukraine….

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Biden Warns Zelensky That February Invasion Is ‘Distinct Possibility’

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Live Updates

Joe Biden has warned Ukrainian President Vlodomyr Zelensky that an invasion by Russian forces in February is a “distinct possibility” despite ongoing diplomatic talks.

Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin continues to “study” the U.S. response to Russia’s security demands – chiefly the expansion of NATO forces in Eastern Europe and the possibility of membership for Ukraine.

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to “study” the U.S. response to his security demands but Kremlin officials claim it is not a “positive reaction” to its main concerns
  • President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke over the phone yesterday for a “check-in”
  • ‘Very concerned’ Americans struggle to leave Ukraine as Russian forces continue to mass at the border
  • U.S. pledges to declassify recon photos and call out Russian manipulation in Ukraine as a “strategic decision to call out disinformation when we see it”
  • Russia continues to debate supplying weapons to militants in Ukrainian Donbas “to deter Kyiv’s clearly planned military aggression”
  • The State Department says Americans should “strongly consider leaving” Ukraine in updated travel advisory

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U.S. Details Possible Sanctions on Russia Over a Ukraine Invasion

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The officials declined to say whether the United States was prepared to cut Russia off from the SWIFT system, which executes global financial transactions between more than 1,100 banks in 200 countries. But European officials say they have discussed that possibility — something most major European powers had declined to consider until recently, for fear that Russia might retaliate by attempting to cut off gas and oil flows in the winter, even briefly.

The SWIFT cutoff has been used against Iran with some success. But Cynthia Roberts, a professor of political science at Hunter College, noted that Russia had learned a lot about “global sanctions-proofing,” and she expressed doubt that the country would suffer as much as American officials contend if it were disconnected from SWIFT.

“They would definitely take a big hit,” she said at a seminar held this past week by the Center for the National Interest. But she noted that Russia had stockpiled hundreds of billions in gold and dollar reserves and that the Bank of China had joined Russia’s own domestic version of SWIFT. That raises the possibility that Russia and China, as part of their expanding partnership, might join forces to help Moscow evade the West’s action.

The bottom line, she said, is that “sanctions have a very poor coercive track record.”

The technology sanctions would target some of Mr. Putin’s favored industries — particularly aerospace and arms, which are major producers of revenue for the Russian government. The focus would be on Russian-built fighter aircraft, antiaircraft systems, antisatellite systems, space systems and emerging technologies where Russia is hoping to make gains, like artificial intelligence and quantum computing.

Similar export controls have been surprisingly effective against China’s leading producer of cellphones, Huawei, which for a while was among the top providers of smartphones to the world. That part of its business has all but collapsed in the past year because it cannot obtain advanced chips. But the Russian economy bears little resemblance to China’s, and it remains unclear whether it is as vulnerable to technology embargoes.

The options under consideration go well…

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Defining democracy down. Preemptive blame for a prospective invasion. The Corpse Bride Diet and other temptations of social media.

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At a glance.

  • Defining democracy down.
  • Preemptive blame for a prospective invasion.
  • The Corpse Bride Diet and other temptations of social media.

Pushing a “positive” message (as opposed to merely sowing confusion).

As we saw last week, China has been working to push an alternative picture of democracy, the “whole-process people’s democracy” outlined by the State Council of the People’s Republic white paper, “China: Democracy That Works.” The overarching goal is to contrast China’s mode of social organization with America’s process-bound cynicism, all, of course, to the advantage of China and the disadvantage of America.

Beijing’s news outlet CGTN has been running a multi-part series, “America: War by another name,” which it describes as “a special eight-part series that explores the sinister motivations for [America’s] warmongering.” Part six came out this week, and it’s devoted to “American Cyber Hegemony: Science fiction turned into reality.” The upshot of the article is that US institutional paranoia has led the Americans to become the leading proponents of both cyberespionage and cybersabotage. The US strategy, CGTN explains, has these four phases, roughly strategy, organization, operations, and intelligence:

  • “First, the U.S. has formulated and promoted an increasingly offensive cyber security strategy, rendering cyberspace in perpetuated instability. With strategic competition as the focal point, the four U.S. governments since the 20th century [those would be the Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden Administrations, and CGTN says elsewhere that Washington’s hegemonic ambitions in cyberspace go back to President Clinton] have embarked on a three-phase process of establishing, managing and controlling the cyber network – all in an attempt to write the rules and gain absolute strategic advantages in cyberspace…. From a passive defensive strategy that protected key infrastructure and beefed up the management system, the U.S. has gradually turned to an active defensive strategy that systematically built cyberspace deterrence to fend off threats, and then to a forward defensive strategy that pre-emptively attacks potential targets of threat actors. America’s increasingly expansive…

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